🛍️ Retail Earnings+ Holiday Hype = Big Week Ahead
Markets ended the week on a high, with the S&P 500 extending its winning streak to five sessions.
⚡ Closing Bell:
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S&P 500: ⬆️ +0.3% to 5,965.28
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Nasdaq: ⬆️ +0.2% to 18,995.12
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Russell 2000: ⬆️ +1.8% to 2,345.71, driven by strength in small-cap stocks.
Broad-based gains defined the session, with only two S&P 500 sectors—utilities and communication services—ending lower. Google continued to slide, dropping
⬇️ 1.7%, as the DOJ’s antitrust case kept selling pressure elevated.
The automakers had a stellar day, with ✅ General Motors ⬆️ (+5.1%) , Tesla ⬆️ (+3.8%), and Ford ⬆️ (+3.5%) leading consumer discretionary. Meanwhile, Nvidia slipped ⬇️ -3.2% as traders tempered expectations for another big move post-earnings. On the brighter side, Super Micro Computer surged ⬆️ 11.6%, as optimism grew that its accounting issues would be resolved without major fallout.
With strong gains across sectors and small caps dominating, the week ended on an upbeat note. Investors appear ready to carry this momentum into the final stretch of the year, even as tech and regulatory pressures linger.
#TRUTH:
❗“Success is getting what you want. Happiness is wanting what you get.”~ Dale Carnegie
Black Friday:
The holiday shopping season has turned into a battlefield of bargains. Retailers, eager to lure shoppers early, rolled out sales well ahead of Black Friday, but the results are looking like a mixed bag. Earnings reports are starting to reveal who’s winning—and who’s struggling—in the fight for consumers’ increasingly cautious dollars.
📈 Winners So Far:
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Walmart raised its annual guidance after reporting a surge in spending from higher-income shoppers earning over $100K.
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TJX (parent of TJ Maxx) delivered strong Q3 results, showing that discounts are still king.
📉 Struggling Contenders:
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Target trimmed its end-of-year outlook, citing weak discretionary spending.
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Best Buy will report tomorrow, offering clues on whether Target’s challenges are isolated or part of a broader retail trend.
The picture isn’t all rosy. Macy’s and Nordstrom, both set to report this week, had already forecast sluggish sales earlier in the year. And while Gen Z darlings Abercrombie & Fitch and Urban Outfitters are riding the wave of niche fashion trends, their reports tomorrow will reveal how much younger shoppers are willing to splurge this season.
The broader numbers tell a cautious story.
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📦 Nonessential spending (like electronics and appliances) has climbed in recent months.
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👗 Clothing sales, however, are shrinking, reflecting shifting priorities.
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Analysts predict this holiday season will have the slowest spending growth in six years, with inflation squeezing budgets across the board.
Shoppers are tightening their belts. Even wealthier consumers are trading down to value-driven retailers like Walmart and Costco, while ultracheap players like Shein and Temu continue to thrive. Not to be left out, Amazon has launched its new “everything under $20” storefront, aiming to win over the bargain-hunting crowd.
Final words:
This year’s holiday retail landscape is all about value, with deep discounts dominating wish lists. While Walmart and other discount leaders thrive, retailers with an upscale sheen, like Target, face a tougher fight for relevance. The winners this season will be those who can deliver not just the best deals, but the savviest shopping experiences.
Out of Love:
The “Magnificent 7” megacap stocks—Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla—have been the cornerstone of the U.S. equity bull market, collectively accounting for over 30% of the S&P 500. Yet, hedge funds appear to be cooling on this dominant group. According to Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage data, hedge-fund positioning in these tech titans has dropped to its lowest level in a year.
Goldman Sachs attributes the shift to hedge funds chasing new opportunities. With excitement building around emerging AI plays and stocks tied to potential policy benefits under the new administration, Big Tech no longer looks like the only game in town.
Interestingly, despite this reallocation, the “Mag 7” have still managed to outperform the broader S&P 500 since November 5. But there’s a catch: ❗the gains are almost entirely due to Tesla, which surged 3.82%, while the rest of the group struggled to keep pace.
For passive investors tied to the S&P 500, the reliance on these seven stocks is a double-edged sword. ❗History shows that rotations out of Big Tech—like the move into small caps in mid-July—can weigh on the index.
So far, however, the impact has been minimal. The S&P 500 sits less than 1% below its record high, suggesting that this hedge-fund retreat hasn’t caused major disruption—yet.
As the Magnificent 7 continue to shape the trajectory of the broader market, investors will be watching closely. ❗ If this hedge-fund pullback deepens, it could signal a broader shift away from the megacap dominance that has defined much of this bull market. For now, though, the market is holding steady, a testament to the resilience of these tech giants.
$8B and Counting:
Amazon is making waves in the AI race, doubling its investment in Anthropic with a fresh $4 billion injection. The move brings its total stake in the generative AI startup to $8 billion and positions Amazon Web Services (AWS) as Anthropic’s primary cloud and training partner—a significant alliance in an increasingly competitive field.
This isn’t just about money; it’s about infrastructure and access. Anthropic will use AWS’s proprietary Trainium and Inferentia chips to develop and train its models, while AWS customers gain early access to Anthropic’s AI systems for fine-tuning on their own data. It’s a strategic collaboration that gives Amazon a foothold in the generative AI market, where Microsoft and OpenAI currently dominate.
→ Microsoft has invested $13 billion in OpenAI, securing exclusive rights to its technology, including ChatGPT.
→ By contrast, Amazon’s approach with Anthropic is more of a partnership. While Amazon is a minority investor without board seats, its $8 billion bet signals that it’s willing to play the long game to compete with Microsoft, Google, and Meta in the trillion-dollar AI space.
The market’s reaction was subdued, with Amazon shares dipping ⬇️ 0.51% to $197.36. Investors may still be weighing the implications of this hefty commitment—one that lacks the exclusivity Microsoft enjoys with OpenAI. Critics suggest Amazon needs Anthropic more than Anthropic needs Amazon, but this collaboration could be Amazon’s ticket to narrowing the AI gap.
In a race where missing out could be costlier than betting big, Amazon is wagering that its investment in Anthropic will pay off. With AI shaping up to be the defining technology of the decade, $8 billion might be the price of staying in the game.
Close to $100K:
Bitcoin is closing in on the $100K mark, sparking fresh debates about its role in the financial world. Once the target of internet jokes for its wild volatility, the cryptocurrency is now being hailed as “digital gold.” But as its price surges and dominance solidifies, questions linger:❗is bitcoin really evolving, or is this just another chapter in its speculative saga?
From Punchlines to Promise
It wasn’t so long ago that bitcoin’s volatility was its defining trait. Remember the joke?
“A boy asked his dad for $10 in bitcoin. Dad: $9.67? What do you need $10.32 for?”
Fast forward to today, and bitcoin’s price swings are far less chaotic. In 2023 and 2024, daily price moves above 10% in either direction have been rare. For context, bitcoin hasn’t closed down more than 10% in a single 24-hour window this year—a stark contrast to its earlier days.
Still, it’s not quite gold yet. Over the past year, bitcoin’s volatility has been about three times that of gold, according to Koyfin. While bitcoin is becoming steadier, its “safe-haven asset” label still comes with a healthy dose of risk.
Institutional Investors Are All In
Bitcoin’s revival isn’t just a retail story—it’s being powered by big money.
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BlackRock’s bitcoin ETFs now manage over $105 billion, far outpacing ethereum ETFs at $9.77 billion.
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Major banks like Goldman Sachs have started exploring bitcoin-backed products, signaling growing mainstream acceptance.
The growing popularity of spot bitcoin ETFs is also reshaping the landscape. By offering easier access to the cryptocurrency, these funds are drawing in a new wave of investors.
The Trump Factor and Political Tailwinds
Bitcoin’s post-election surge isn’t just about markets—it’s political. The resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler, a known crypto critic, has opened the door for a more crypto-friendly regulator. Speculation that the “crypto president” could even create a bitcoin reserve has further fueled enthusiasm.
Dominance Restored
Bitcoin now accounts for over 60% of the total crypto market cap, a level not seen since early 2021. Its market cap is nearing $2 trillion—on par with Google parent Alphabet. Despite the noise around altcoins like ethereum and meme coins such as dogecoin, bitcoin has reclaimed its throne as the dominant force in crypto.
Echoes of the Past
As bitcoin surges, familiar trends are resurfacing. NFT weekly sales have doubled in recent days, and even the once-irrelevant Bored Ape Yacht Club is making a comeback. The parallels to previous bull markets are hard to ignore.
For now, bitcoin is as captivating as ever, a symbol of both innovation and speculation. Whether it’s redefining finance or riding another speculative wave, its story is one worth watching.
🧩 Other Movers:
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Gap (GAP): ⬆️ 19% on strong earnings and raised outlook
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Ross Stores (ROST): ⬆️ 5% after positive earnings report
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Super Micro Computer (SMCI): ⬆️ 12% extending post-Nvidia rally
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Intuit (INTU): ⬇️ 4% despite beating estimates, weak guidance weighs
Commodities Check: ✔️
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Gold: ⬆️ $33.40 to $2,708.30 ✅
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Crude Oil: ⬆️ $1.12 to $71.22 ✅
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Silver closed at $31.30 per ounce
The Dollar:
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