Happy 2025!
Markets stumbled into the New Year, shaking off any lingering holiday cheer. Wall Street’s first trading day of 2025 saw red across the board. A rough start? Perhaps. But after last year’s stellar gains, the bar is high.

⚡ Closing Bell:

• Dow Jones: ⬇️ -0.3% (-150 points)

• S&P 500: ⬇️ -0.2% — Consumer discretionary led the slide.

• Nasdaq Composite: ⬇️ -0.2% — Tesla (-6%) took a heavy toll.

• Russell 2000: ⬇️ +0.1% — Managed a modest uptick.

Sector Highlights:

• Best Performer ✅: Energy, the sector led the S&P 500 as crude oil prices surged to kick off the year.

• Biggest Decliner ❌: Consumer discretionary, materials, and real estate sectors weighed heavily on the broader market.

Yields Watch
Treasury yields climbed higher, with the 10-year yield ticking up to 4.57%, keeping growth stocks under pressure.

Dollar Dominance: The Dollar Spot Index jumping 0.7%. The surge added pressure to equities, especially internationally exposed names.

#TRUTH:
❗❗❗ “Energy and persistence conquer all things.” ~ Benjamin Franklin

Is $3,000 the Next Stop?

Gold just wrapped up its best year since 2010, shining with a stellar 27% gain in 2024—outpacing even the S&P 500’s 23% rally. Wall Street thinks this golden run is far from over.

What’s Driving the Surge?

• Rate Cuts Ahead: Expectations of at least two more Federal Reserve rate cuts are setting the stage for gold to keep climbing.

• Central Bank Buys: Emerging market central banks are stocking up on bullion as a hedge against financial and geopolitical shocks.

• Retail Investors Waiting in the Wings: Lower interest rates could entice more individual investors to jump into the gold game.

Gold futures hit $2,670 per ounce on Thursday, and some analysts are eyeing an even bigger milestone.

Wall Street’s Forecasts:

• JPMorgan: Predicts gold will reach $3,000 this year, calling it a solid hedge against macro uncertainty.

• Goldman Sachs: Sees a potential rise to $3,050 if central bank buying surpasses expectations, though prices could hover near $2,900 if the Fed slows down its rate-cutting pace.

Inflation Concerns Loom
Sticky inflation and policies like higher tariffs could add to price pressures, creating more reasons for investors to turn to gold as a safe haven.

💡 Our Take: Gold’s next chapter could be even more dazzling—if the macro conditions align just right. Wall Street certainly seems to think so, but as always, the devil’s in the data.

Siri’s $95 Million Oops:

Apple’s Siri is back in the spotlight—but not for answering your questions. The tech giant has agreed to a $95 million settlement in a class-action lawsuit over claims that Siri accidentally recorded sensitive conversations.

What Happened?

Back in 2019, reports revealed that Apple’s quality control contractors could overhear private chats triggered by Siri’s “Hey Siri” feature. These included everything from medical info to, well, unmentionables. Apple denied wrongdoing but admitted it “fell short” of its privacy ideals.

The Changes 🍏:

• Fired external contractors.

• Shifted Siri data reviews to in-house employees.

• Deleted accidental recordings.

• Made sharing Siri data opt-in only.

Who Gets Paid? 💵

If you owned a Siri-enabled device between 2014 and 2024, you could pocket up to $20 per device—pending court approval. For Apple, this payout is a mere nine hours of profit.

The settlement shows Apple’s willingness to move past one of its rare privacy slip-ups, but it’s a stark reminder that even tech titans can fumble on user trust.

$200 Billion Horizon:

Nvidia (NVDA) is setting the stage for what could be a blockbuster year, with the much-anticipated Blackwell GPUs expected to push its 2025 revenue into uncharted territory. According to Spear Invest Founder and CIO Ivana Delevska, Nvidia’s early deliveries of the Blackwell chips could generate over $200 billion in revenue this year alone.

AI’s Growth Engine
As AI adoption surges, Nvidia remains at the heart of the conversation. Delevska highlights the transformative impact of the Blackwell GPUs, noting that early ramp-ups in deliveries could be a significant revenue driver.

Sector-Wide Momentum
It’s not just Nvidia in the spotlight. Competitors Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are also poised to benefit from the AI boom, particularly as the focus shifts to the physical infrastructure needed to sustain this growth.

The Energy Puzzle
AI’s rise is putting pressure on the power grid, with energy providers like Vistra (VST) and Constellation Energy (CEG) stepping in to fill the gap. However, there are challenges ahead:

• Aging Infrastructure: The U.S. power grid is due for a significant upgrade, both in generation capacity and distribution reliability.

• Rising Prices: To incentivize new energy supply, power prices are expected to spike as demand accelerates.

Looking Ahead
Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs could redefine the AI landscape, but they’ll need robust infrastructure to deliver on their potential. With data center build-outs and power supply at the forefront, 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year—not just for Nvidia, but for the broader AI ecosystem. 🚀

Tesla’s Future: Cars? Not So Much.

Tesla’s Q4 auto delivery miss and its first-ever annual sales decline since going public raised eyebrows. But Wall Street isn’t panicking—because Tesla’s story has evolved beyond selling EVs.

The focus? Bold ventures like full-self driving (FSD) software, Cybercab, and a growing suite of futuristic projects. With the Trump administration seemingly open to Musk’s ambitions (and $250M worth of political donations likely helping), the narrative is shifting to possibilities that go far beyond car sales.

What’s Driving the Hype?

• Full-Self Driving: Analysts like Stephen Gengaro at Stifel see FSD and Cybercab as pivotal for Tesla’s future gains.

• Diversifying Growth: Baird highlights Tesla’s energy business, robotaxi rollout, and the Optimus humanoid robot as key milestones.

Musk’s magic has always been his knack for keeping retail investors starry-eyed, translating that loyalty into inexpensive capital. But there’s a catch:

From Promise to Performance
While these ventures are promising, execution remains a significant hurdle:

• FSD Readiness: Analysts from Truist caution that Tesla’s self-driving software still has critical gaps, labeling it as “not ready for prime time.”

• Cybercab Delays: The lack of clear timelines and ongoing delays raise concerns about Tesla’s ability to meet its ambitious targets.

What’s Next?
Tesla’s ability to pivot from being an automaker to a multifaceted tech leader depends on turning these bold visions into operational success. While the potential is vast, so are the challenges. Investors will be closely watching 2025 to see if Tesla can deliver on its promises and maintain its growth trajectory.

🧩 Movers:

Spotlight ✅ / At the Bottom ❌

• ✅ Constellation Energy (CEG): +8.4% — Boosted by a $840M government contract.

• ❌ Apple (AAPL): -2.6% — Price cuts in China raise competitive concerns.

• ❌ SoFi Technologies (SOFI): -8.3% — Downgraded by analysts despite a stellar 2024.

The Magnificent 7 Split Decision:

• Winners ✅: Nvidia (+2.97%) and Meta (+2.35%) shone, ranking near the top of the S&P 500.

• Losers ❌: Tesla (-6.14%) slid to the bottom after missing Q4 sales expectations. The cohort as a whole hasn’t posted a positive session since before Christmas—their longest such streak since April.

Commodities Check: ✔️

• Oil: ⬇️ -0.8% to $73.50 per barrel — higher inventories and mixed demand signal caution.

• Gold: ⬆️ +0.4% to $2,633.38 per ounce — driven by rate-cut optimism and central bank buying.

• Silver: ⬆️ +1.6% to $29.50 per ounce — riding the momentum from industrial demand and inflation
  

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Disclaimer

This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills.