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In this buzz:Goldman ; Morgan Stanley; P&G and Netflix; Nasdaq, the S&P, the Dow and more …
There’s no rest for the weary in these markets. Hopefully, the long weekend provided some time to rest, reflect and recover. We’ll ease back into week with a quick roundup of what to watch for over the coming weeks.
Roundup:
- Earnings season rolls on and this morning Goldman missed its profit estimate due to a sharp decline in investment banking and asset management. To be fair, all the signs were there for disappointment, the RIF, the news about losses in its platform business. To say, GS “missed”, it a little sketchy as expectations were already low.
- On the flip side, Morgan Stanley beat expectations, aided by record revenue in wealth management.
- In any event, earnings season marched on with some closely watch names like P&G and Netflix reporting Thursday.
Overall, stocks have enjoyed a favorable start to 2023.
- Nasdaq is up almost 6%,
- the S&P up 4.2% and
- the Dow up 3.5%.
Despite the Fed sticking with its plan to continue to raise rates to bring inflation back to earth, investors are heartened by signs of consumer prices dropping, even as the job market remains healthy.
In world news, China* reported that its population dropped for the first time in 60 years; a fall of 850,000 to 1.41 billion. Though China reported better than expected GDP numbers for 2022,
(why it matters?) the population numbers are causing concern that demand in the country could slow for years.
*China population drop insight: A massive leak from the Shanghai Police Department this past June helps to demystify the data. Claiming to have obtained personal data about roughly one billion Chinese citizens, an anonymous hacker released a sample of about 750,000 records, including the household registration data of 250,000 people of all ages. The sample data are highly dispersed and random, covering almost every county, including in remote, sparsely populated areas in Tibet. All appear to align with data from the 2010 census in terms of population shares by surname.
It is not possible to pinpoint the number of people in each age group nationwide; but the overall pattern of the age distribution is consistent with past censuses. It suggests that post-1990 births continued to decline faster than predicted. That means China’s real population may not be 1.41 billion (the official figure).
Unexpectedly rapid aging is slowing China’s economy, reducing revenues, and increasing government debt, with provinces cutting civil servants’ wages and infrastructure investment this year. Clearly, the population base that supported China’s strategic expansion is gone.
source: https://www.project-syndicate.org
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