Markets finally found their footing Friday after a week of turmoil, rallying as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed cooling price pressures—keeping rate-cut dreams alive… for now.

Financials led the charge, and for once, every single S&P 500 sector finished higher—something we haven’t seen much this year.

Even the Magnificent 7 stopped hemorrhaging, with Nvidia (+4.08%) and Tesla (+4.03%) leading the bounce. Sure, Nvidia didn’t reclaim its 200-day moving average, but at this point, the market will take what it can get.

⚡ Closing Bell:

• Nasdaq 100: ⬆️ +1.6% › 18,847.3 › Tech rebounds, but the weekly scorecard is still ugly.
• S&P 500: ⬆️ +1.6% › 5,954.50 › Financials led, no sector left behind.
• Dow Jones: ⬆️ +1.4% › 43,840.9 › Broader strength as markets exhaled.
• Russell 2000: ⬆️ +1.1% › 2,215.7 › Small caps joined the party—finally.

Despite Friday’s rally, markets still logged weekly losses, and next week’s jobs data and Fed speeches will test whether this recovery has legs—or if rate-cut hopes are getting ahead of reality.

Macro Moves:
➝ 10-Year Yield: ⬇️ –7.7 bps › 4.21%
➝ 2-Year Yield: ⬇️ –9.1 bps › 3.99%

❗ Looking Ahead: Friday’s bounce was a welcome relief, but the real test comes next week. Trump’s March 4 tariff deadline is here, and if new levies on Canada, Mexico, and China go live, markets could be staring down fresh supply chain disruptions. Meanwhile, the jobs report will test whether the Fed can stay in rate-cut mode, and earnings from Costco, Broadcom, and Target will reveal if consumer spending is holding up. Geopolitical risks? Still very much in play, with Ukraine tensions and China’s slowdown lingering.

#TRUTH:
❗❗❗ “There’s no such thing as a free lunch, except in arbitrage.” ~ Milton Friedman

On Thin Ice:

The dollar’s recent bounce didn’t last long, as investors are shifting away from the greenback amid signs of a cooling US economy. Tariff tensions and weaker economic data have fueled speculation that a slowdown is underway, leading to a growing chorus of dollar bears.

Big names like Invesco and Columbia Threadneedle have turned bearish, while Morgan Stanley and SocGen warn that long-dollar trades are looking crowded. The currency has now dropped 2% from its post-election peak, with rising jobless claims and a housing market slump adding to concerns.

While tariffs have historically boosted the dollar, traders are now focused on Fed rate cuts, with markets pricing in 0.70 percentage points of easing by year-end. At the same time, European currencies are gaining ground as confidence in defense spending and economic stability grows abroad.

The dollar is still the dominant force in global markets, but with sentiment shifting and policy uncertainty rising, the road ahead looks volatile.

Bitcoin Taps Out:

Risk-off sentiment is hitting crypto and growth stocks, with investors pulling $3 billion from Bitcoin ETFs over the past week. Tuesday alone saw over $1 billion exit Bitcoin funds—the largest single-day outflow since their launch last year.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $80,000 and now sits 24% below its all-time high of ~$109,000. Blame it on tariffs, Nvidia’s post-earnings slump, and a dose of profit-taking.

Meanwhile, gold ETFs are seeing their biggest inflows since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as some investors trade their digital gold for the real thing.

$30B Lifeline:

American farmers are about to get a $30 billion lifeline, with the first $10 billion tranche set to be distributed in the coming weeks, according to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. Speaking at the Commodity Classic in Denver, Rollins said she’s pushing to fast-track the application process to avoid delays.

Farmers have been battling a triple threat—falling crop prices, rising input costs, and shrinking export market share. Row-crop producers, in particular, are facing what Rollins called “the worst downturn in 100 years.”

The funding will come through programs like the Environmental Quality Incentive Program and Conservation Stewardship Program, targeting those already enrolled. Meanwhile, Rollins also hinted at working with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—a longtime pesticide critic—to bridge the gap on ag policy.

With US farm income under pressure and food imports at record highs, this funding is a much-needed boost—but the real challenge is making sure it moves fast enough.

“Peecycling” for Greener Crops:

Move over synthetic fertilizers—Vermont farmers are turning to human urine as a natural alternative, bringing back a centuries-old agricultural practice. Thanks to the Urine Nutrient Reclamation Program (UNRP), locals are donating 12,000 gallons of pasteurized pee each year, cutting down on chemical fertilizers while boosting crop yields.

Turns out, urine is packed with nitrogen and phosphorus—the same key nutrients found in conventional fertilizers. But unlike synthetic options, it doesn’t come with the environmental baggage of fossil-fuel-heavy production or toxic waste. Scientists say peecycling can more than double yields for crops like kale and spinach, while also preventing harmful nutrient runoff from contaminating waterways.

Of course, scaling this up isn’t without hurdles. Regulatory red tape, transport logistics, and the “ick factor” are all challenges, but early adopters are pushing ahead. Europe is already getting in on the trend, with urine-based fertilizers being tested in Paris, Sweden, and beyond.

With rising fertilizer costs and increasing environmental concerns, Vermont’s pee-powered farming experiment may be just the beginning. Who knew the future of sustainable agriculture was already in the tank?

Escapes:

Mackinac island, MI

Highlights of the Day:

① Tech Bounces Back (For Now) ✅
➝ Nvidia (NVDA) +4.08% › Rebounded after a rough week but still below key levels.
➝ Tesla (TSLA) +4.03% › Snapped its losing streak, giving investors some relief.

② Earnings Winners ✅
➝ SoundHound AI (SOUN) +17.81% › Blew past earnings expectations and raised its 2025 outlook.
➝ AES Corp (AES) +11.66% › Crushed earnings and sent the stock soaring.
➝ Monster Beverage (MNST) +5.22% › The energy drink rally keeps going strong.

③ Can’t Catch a Break ❌
➝ Dell (DELL) -4.70% › Weak Q4 revenue weighed on AI server stocks.
➝ FuboTV (FUBO) -13.49% › Soft guidance and a sales miss sent investors running for the exits.

④ Other Movers
➝ Biggest Winner? SoundHound AI, which posted a massive rally on strong guidance.
➝ Biggest Loser? FuboTV, where weak numbers crushed sentiment.

Commodities Check : ✔️

• Oil : ⬇️ –0.4% › $70.07 per barrel › Some relief, but energy still holding firm.
• Gold : ⬇️ –1.0% › $2,868.10 per troy ounce › Sliding as rate cuts look closer.
• Silver : ⬇️ –1.2% › $31.72 per ounce › Dollar strength keeps pressure on metals.

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Disclaimer

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