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Even bulls need a nap sometimes! 😴

#TRUTH:
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
— Warren Buffett


The post-election euphoria is fading, with investors taking a break from last week’s record-breaking rally. Bond yields jumped, adding some extra pressure on stocks. Meanwhile, smaller companies that were riding high on Trump’s coattails are now feeling the pinch.

After all, even bulls need a nap sometimes! 😴

Closing Bell:

  • Dow Jones: ⬇️ -0.9% (382.15 points) to 43,910.98 — Largest drop among the three major indexes. Up 16.5% for the year.

  • S&P 500 ($SPF): ⬇️ -0.3% to 5,983.99 — Slight slip and first negative trading day since last week’s election. Still up 25.5% year-to-date.

  • Nasdaq: ⬇️ Dipped -0.1% (17.36 points) to 19,281.40 — Showed the most resilience among the three. Impressive 28.4% gain year-to-date.

Mood Swing 🎭

  • Post-election rally momentum fizzled out.

  • Bond yields jumped, adding pressure on stocks.

  • Smaller stocks (Russell 2000) sank 1.8%, reversing recent gains.


Who would’ve thought?

Yes, Bitcoin did cross $90,000 yesterday (November 12, 2024), hitting a new all-time high of $90,243.

  • Currently trading at $88,075.01, up 3.76% ⬆️ in 24 hours. Wow!

  • Ethereum‘s not too shabby either, reaching $3,200.

Why the sudden urge? Well:

  1. Trump’s back, and he’s brought his crypto pom-poms.

  2. Regulators are singing a slightly less scary tune.

  3. Big money’s joining (MicroStrategy and BlackRock, we see you).

  4. Bitcoin ETFs are now a thing, because why not?

Crypto-related stocks rallied alongside Bitcoin:

  • Coinbase (COIN): ⬆️ +20% on Nov. 11, marking a 75% gain since election day.

  • Marathon Digital Holdings: ⬆️ +30% on Nov. 11.

  • CleanSpark and Hut 8: ⬆️ over 25% each in the last session.

Analysts are now eyeing $100K. But remember, in crypto-land, what goes up can come down faster than you can say “HODL.”
So maybe don’t bet the farm just yet? As always, do your homework!


Bumpy Brew 🍻

It’s been a rocky pour for Bud Light! After last year’s marketing mishap, the brand is working hard to get back on tap.

CEO Michel Doukeris claims Bud Light is now “stable” – which in beer terms, might mean it’s finally stopped going flat. But, not quite there:

  • Sales Slump: Sales are still down ⬇️ 13.7%—looks like some folks are holding tight onto their grudges.

  • Modelo’s Moment: The Mexican beer has dethroned Bud Light as America’s favorite brew.

The Comeback Strategy

Diversification and new launches.

They’re leaning into premium options and non-alcoholic brews like Corona Cero and Nutrl hard seltzer to meet shifting consumer tastes.

And it’s paying off—operating profit margins are up ⬆️ 169 basis points, and earnings per share have climbed 14% from last year.

Bud Light’s core market? Still facing a buzzkill, with premium light beer down ⬇️ 6% as drinkers flock to spirits and hard seltzers. But they are banking on a comeback, fueled by ① $2 billion stock buyback and a ② projected 6-8% profit growth.

Looking Ahead: Bud Light’s on a mission to win back fans, investors, and a bit of its old swagger. The stakes? Reclaiming its throne and showing that one misstep doesn’t mean last call.


Watt a Deal ♻️

Reduce, Reuse, Recycle… The EV market is about to get exciting. J.D. Power predicts over 215,000 EVs will be coming off lease by 2026., which means prices are set to drop.

For new buyers, this could be the spark they’ve been waiting for:

  • Used EV prices dropped 11.1% in October, outpacing gas cars’ measly 3.5% dip.

  • Affordable EVs? It’s not just a dream anymore.

EV makers, however, face two scenarios:

  • Cheaper pre-owned models could put the brakes on new car sales.

  • But they might also lure in the EV-curious who’ve been watching from the sidelines.

The wild card? Tax incentives. Current credits make new EV leases very tempting. As EVs potentially zoom to 12% market share by 2026, buyers face an electrifying choice: new or used?

Either way, the days of EVs being rare are numbered. Just remember, while these cars might be pre-loved, they still pack plenty of zip. Who knows? Your next car might come with that new-car smell… of ozone.


Shrinkflation 🌮🌶️

Looks like Chipotle’s been caught with its hand in the burrito bowl!
A lawsuit is heating up the courtroom as investor Michael Stradford claims the chain’s higher-ups fibbed about their shrinking portions.

The details:

  • Stradford says Chipotle misled investors from Feb 8 to Oct 29.

  • Social media was buzzing with “Where’s the beef?” complaints.

Wells Fargo analysts went full MythBusters, buying 75 burritos to prove the point Former CEO Brian Niccol (now at Starbucks – talk about jumping from the frying pan into the coffee!) tried to wrap up the controversy, calling skimpy servings “outliers.”

But recent earnings calls suggest Chipotle’s been beefing up portions to save face, taking a bite out of profits.
The stock took a tumble after earnings reports:

  • July: 1.9% drop ⬇️

  • October: 7.9% plunge ⬇️

However, Chipotle’s stock is still up 33% this year. Seems like investors still have an appetite for it, even if portions are getting lean!


Gold vs S&P500

Since 1999, gold has been quietly writing its own rags-to-riches story:

  • Gold’s real return: 6.8% per year since 1999

  • S&P 500’s average total return: 4.9% over the same period

It doesn’t even pay dividends but has been outperforming the U.S. stock market for nearly a quarter-century!

Why? Here’s a breakdown:

  • Low Treasury Yields: With inflation-protected Treasury yields barely moving, investors are leaning on gold for better returns.

  • Crisis-Proof Confidence: After the 2008 financial crisis, people’s trust in fiat currencies took a hit. Gold—“hard money”—stepped in as a solid backup.

  • Global Stimulus Push: Post-crisis, big stimulus plans (especially from China) ramped up demand for gold and other resources.

  • Central Banks Stash Gold: With geopolitical tensions high, central banks are loading up on gold to hedge their bets, especially post-Russia sanctions.

But here’s the twist: despite gold’s steady climb, gold miners haven’t exactly struck it rich. They’ve lagged behind the S&P 500, facing their own challenges.


🧩 Movers:

  • Tyson Foods (TSN): ⬆️ +8.3% ✅

  • Dexcom (DXCM): ⬆️ +5.4% ✅

  • Live Nation (LYV): ⬆️ +4.5% ✅

  • Adobe (ADBE): ⬆️ +4.3% ✅

  • Honeywell (HON): ⬆️ +3.1% ✅


Commodities Check: ✔️

  • Crude Oil ⬆️ +0.83% to $72.29 per barrel

  • Gold ⬆️ +0.2% to $2,611.60 per ounce

  • Silver ⬆️ +0.88% to $31.03 per ounce


Dollar Up :


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Disclaimer

This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills.

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