Stocks took a dramatic nosedive, while bonds enjoyed a rare moment in the spotlight, as fresh economic data reminded investors that spending and growth don’t defy gravity forever.

⚡ Closing Bell:

• Dow Jones: ⬇️ –1.7% › 43,428 › Walmart extended losses, dragging blue chips lower.

• S&P 500: ⬇️ –1.7% › 6,013.1 › Hit its 50-day moving average amid broad selling.

• Nasdaq 100: ⬇️ –2.1% › 19,524 › Tech stocks got hit hardest.

• Russell 2000: ⬇️ –2.9% › 2,189.3 › Small caps took the biggest beating.

🔻 Key Drivers Behind the Sell-Off:
➝ Consumer confidence deteriorated, with sentiment dropping sharply.
➝ Inflation expectations jumped, reaching their highest levels since November 2023.
➝ The services sector slowed unexpectedly, signaling weaker economic growth.
➝ Tariff concerns resurfaced, fueling fears of higher costs ahead.
➝ Housing data disappointed, as existing home sales fell more than expected.

Where Money Moved:
Not everything was in free fall.
➝ Consumer staples gained over 1%,
➝ as investors rotated into defensive stocks,
➝ while utilities remained flat, holding up better than the rest of the market.

On the downside, tech, consumer discretionary, industrials, and energy all plunged more than 2%, leading the sell-off.

Macro Moves:
➝ 10-Year Yield: ⬇️ –6.6 bps › 4.43%
➝ 2-Year Yield: ⬇️ –6.4 bps › 4.20%

❗ Looking Ahead: With inflation lurking and economic data looking wobbly, investors now turn to earnings reports and Fed speeches to find out if things are actually bad—or just moderately concerning with a chance of panic.

#TRUTH:
❗❗❗ “Opinion is the medium between knowledge and ignorance.” ~ Plato

Holiday Boom

The holiday travel boom sent earnings soaring for online travel platforms, but Booking Holdings remains the industry’s standout—the only major travel stock outperforming the S&P 500 since Airbnb’s IPO in December 2020.

Who’s Cashing In?
➝ Booking (BKNG), Expedia (EXPE), Airbnb (ABNB), and TripAdvisor (TRIP) all beat analysts’ earnings expectations this quarter.
➝ TripAdvisor lagged behind peers, but its Viator tour-booking platform was a bright spot.

Booking Stays on Top
➝ The company’s revenue dwarfs competitors: $23.7B in 2024, compared to $13.6B for Expedia and $11.1B for Airbnb.
➝ It pioneered the agency model (taking commissions from hotels and airlines) but is now shifting toward the merchant model, buying accommodations at wholesale and reselling to travelers—a strategy long used by Expedia.

Experiences Are the Next Gold Rush
➝ Travelers aren’t just booking flights and hotels—they’re seeking curated excursions.
➝ TripAdvisor is doubling down on Viator, its tours-and-activities marketplace.
➝ Airbnb is revamping its “Experiences” platform after CEO Brian Chesky admitted the company failed to integrate it properly the first time around. The relaunch is set for May 2025.

AI Everywhere
➝ No earnings call is complete without an AI mention, and travel companies are no exception.
➝ CEOs are increasingly focused on how generative AI will enhance booking platforms—expect smarter recommendations and more automated trip planning ahead.

Who’s Buying More?

Bitcoin held steady this week, hovering around $97,000, but corporate buyers are still making moves.

Japanese firm Metaplanet expanded its holdings, adding 68.59 more bitcoin, bringing its total to 2,100 BTC. The company reaffirmed its goal of reaching 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025 and 21,000 BTC by 2026, staying committed to its long-term accumulation strategy.

Meanwhile, Strategy didn’t add to its holdings this week, but that doesn’t mean it’s slowing down. The company announced a $2 billion senior convertible note offering to fuel future purchases. Last week, it resumed its bitcoin accumulation with a 7,633 BTC buy, bringing its total to 478,740 BTC—roughly 76% of all bitcoin held by public companies.

While bitcoin’s price remained stable, institutional players are still stacking, showing no signs of stepping away from the accumulation game.

Bullion Airbags:

Gold is holding just below last week’s all-time high, buoyed by soft U.S. economic data and rising inflation expectations. The metal sits around $2,937 an ounce, extending its rally to an eighth consecutive week, the longest winning streak since 2020.

Investor demand is surging, with bullion-backed ETFs seeing their biggest inflows since 2022. Meanwhile, Friday’s reports showed slowing business activity, declining consumer confidence, and a jump in inflation expectations, pushing traders to price in more Fed rate cuts for 2025, now expected in July instead of September.

Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target to $3,100, citing central bank buying as a key driver. The next test for gold comes Friday when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is set for release, expected to show the slowest pace of price increases since June. For now, gold remains firmly in demand as investors brace for economic uncertainty.

Four To Watch:

These charts will offer insights into commodity market trends, as trade policies, inflation expectations, and economic growth concerns continue to drive volatility:

1️⃣ Oil Volatility & OPEC+ Decisions – Crude futures have been locked in a tight trading range, with volatility hitting its lowest level since July. The upcoming International Energy Week in London and OPEC+ decisions could be key drivers.

2️⃣ Corn Acreage Estimates – The USDA’s annual outlook forum will provide the first official estimate for 2025 U.S. crop acreage, influencing global grain markets. Expectations are for corn acreage to hit a five-year high.

3️⃣ Gold Price Spread & Stockpiles – U.S. gold prices have surged above international benchmarks, fueling a wave of bullion shipments to Comex warehouses. The widening gold arbitrage is a key indicator of market demand.

4️⃣ LNG Export & Price Trends – U.S. LNG exports are at record highs, helping ease European and Asian gas prices. A potential resolution to the war in Ukraine and EU storage policy changes will impact global supply expectations.

Escapes:

Hells Canyon Scenic Byway, Oregon

Highlights of the Day:

① Momentum Meltdown
➝ iShares MSCI Momentum ETF (MTUM) ⬇️ -2.35% ❌ → Fell nearly twice as much as the S&P 500, signaling a sharp unwinding of momentum trades.

② Under Fire
➝ UnitedHealth (UNH) ⬇️ -7.2% ❌ → Denied DOJ investigation rumors, but the stock still took a hit.

③ Slipping Again
➝ Walmart (WMT) ⬇️ -2.5% ❌ → Extended losses, closing below its 50-day moving average for the first time since August.

④ Options Crunch
➝ Nvidia (NVDA) ⬇️ -4.2% ❌ → Heavy drop likely fueled by expiring $140 strike calls, triggering a selloff.

⑤ On Fire
➝ Celsius (CELH) ⬆️ +27.7% ✅ → Surged after announcing a deal to acquire Alani Nu, a Gen Z-favorite energy drink brand.

⑥ Billion-Dollar Boost
➝ Alibaba (BABA) ⬆️ +5.7% ✅ → Jumped after GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen upped his stake to $1 billion.

⑦ Wrecked
➝ Hims & Hers (HIMS) ⬇️ -25.8% ❌ → Cratered after the FDA ended shortages for Ozempic and Wegovy, slashing demand for its copycat versions. Novo Nordisk (NVO) ⬆️ +5.2% ✅ benefited.

⑧ Luxury Hit
➝ The RealReal (REAL) ⬇️ -19.0% ❌ → Issued weaker-than-expected full-year revenue and EBITDA forecasts, sending shares plummeting.

⑨ Regulatory Heat
➝ UnitedHealth (UNH) ⬇️ -7.3% ❌, CrowdStrike (CRWD) ⬇️ -6.8% ❌ → UnitedHealth dropped on DOJ probe reports, while CrowdStrike came under scrutiny from both the DOJ and SEC.

Commodities Check : ✔️

• WTI Crude: ⬇️ –2.87% › $70.40 › Oil prices slid as demand concerns weighed.

• Gold: ⬇️ –0.26% › $2,948.30 › Fell slightly amid market volatility.

• Silver: ⬆️ +0.36% › $33.10 › Gained as investors sought safe-haven assets

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The stinger

Disclaimer

This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills.