Monday delivered back-to-back 1% losses for the S&P 500—a feat not seen since August.

⚡ Closing Bell:

• Dow Jones: ⬇️ -0.8% to 34,217.29

• S&P 500: ⬇️ -1.1% to 4,312.45 — Consumer discretionary and materials led the decline.

• Nasdaq 100: ⬇️ -1.3% to 14,672.20 — Tesla (-3.33%) dragged the index lower.

• Russell 2000: ⬇️ -0.8% to 1,745.22 — Small caps continued to underperform.

Adding to the lack of cheer, the 10-year Treasury yield retreated slightly but still hovers near 4.55%—not exactly the kind of relief traders were hoping for.
Analysts warn that breaching key “trigger levels” like 4.7% or even 5% could pressure stocks further, especially growth names that thrive on lower borrowing costs.

The Magnificent 7 saw their third straight day of losses, a rarity since early October.

• Nvidia managed a small gain (NVDA $136.50, +0.28%), but

• Tesla dragged the group down (TSLA $412.05, -3.33%).

❗On the bright side (if we can call it that), strategists remain upbeat about 2025. The fundamentals? Still intact, they say. Pullbacks in the first half? They’re calling it a potential buying opportunity. So while 2024 may be limping to the finish line, the bulls are already gearing up for what’s next. 🐂

Notable Movers:

• Boeing ❌ (BA $176.11, -2.26%) felt the weight of selling pressure following news of a fatal airplane crash in South Korea over the weekend.

• Every S&P 500 sector ETF ended the day in the red ❌, with consumer discretionary, materials, and health care bringing up the rear.

Natural Gas Heats Up:
While the broader market cooled, natural gas stocks fired up. Comstock Resources ✅ (CRK $19.07, +10.71%) surged double digits as commodity prices rallied ahead of an anticipated cold snap.

#TRUTH:
❗❗❗ “Although no one can go back and make a brand-new start, anyone can start from now and make a brand-new ending.”

~ Carl Bard

New Year, Same Challenges?

As we ring in 2025, the financial outlook is a bit mixed. With mortgage rates stubbornly high, stocks riding high expectations, and the Fed easing cautiously, here’s what to keep an eye on.

Housing hurdles: Despite builders adding 5.8 million new homes over the past four years, it’s not enough to satisfy demand. Buyers face tough decisions—wait it out or dive into a seller’s market that’s anything but forgiving.

Market moves: The S&P 500 could see modest gains, driven by large-cap names like Nvidia thriving on economic stability. But small- and mid-cap stocks might steal the show in 2025. Why? These companies benefit faster from falling interest rates and potential corporate tax cuts, giving them an edge over their heavyweight peers.

The Fed’s playbook: Expect two 25-basis-point cuts in the first half of 2025, followed by a pause. While savings account interest might dip slightly, cooling inflation and steady employment suggest a stable macro environment. Yet, Trump-era fiscal policies could add volatility to the mix.

Credit card crunch: Fed rate cuts may offer a small reprieve, but with average APRs still above 21%, paying down balances remains crucial.

In short, 2025 promises both opportunities and unpredictability. It’s shaping up to be a dynamic year.

Cocoa 🍫 Takes the Crown

2024’s commodities market brought extremes, but one thing is clear: cocoa reigned supreme for the second year running. Prices nearly tripled, hitting a jaw-dropping record of $12,931 per metric ton in New York, as West Africa’s supply struggles intensified. Droughts, bean diseases, and even cocoa farms turning into illegal gold mines created the perfect storm for chocolate lovers’ wallets. Coffee also brewed up massive gains, soaring to 40-year highs, as Brazil battled crippling droughts.

On the flip side, China’s sluggish growth poured cold water on metals. Steel-making coal was the year’s biggest loser, while iron ore slid 15%, despite Beijing’s late-year stimulus efforts. Crude oil also faced pressure, with OPEC+ grappling with record spare capacity of 5 million barrels/day. Analysts predict more pain in 2025 as supply continues to outstrip demand.

Gold Glows in the Gloom
If there’s one star to watch, it’s gold. Up 25%+ this year, it’s poised for another glittering run in 2025. With central banks hoarding and Fed rate cuts looming, gold is positioned as a safe-haven MVP amid Trump’s tariff drama and global trade uncertainties.

Agriculture’s Mixed Bag
Palm oil rebounded, jumping 20%, fueled by Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate and poor weather. Tokyo rubber surged 42%, but soybeans, corn, and wheat weren’t so lucky, sliding on oversupply. However, wheat might stage a comeback in 2025 as Russia’s warming weather puts production at risk.

Looking Ahead: Will 2025 Bring Sweet Gains or Bitter Losses?
With trade tensions escalating, China’s demand cooling, and Trump new policies, 2025 promises volatility.

A few words from me…

As we wrap up 2024, I want to take a moment to thank you for being part of our journey this year. Whether it was navigating market highs, bracing through the lows, or just sharing a laugh over the quirks of the financial world, you’ve made it all worthwhile.

Here’s to 2025—may it bring you prosperity, clarity, and a little less volatility (fingers crossed!). Let’s step into the new year with optimism, fresh opportunities, and maybe even a Santa rally for the history books. 🎉

Wishing you a happy, healthy, and successful New Year! 🥂

Cheers to 2025!

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Disclaimer

This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills.