Powell played it safe, signaling that the Fed isn’t rushing to adjust rates but is ready to act if inflation doesn’t cooperate. Markets took it as a reminder that rate cuts won’t be immediate—but they’re still in play. Wall Street? Mixed reaction.

Consumer discretionary stocks took the biggest hit, while consumer staples held firm.

⚡ Closing Bell:

• Dow Jones: ⬆️ +0.3% › 44,593.7 › Coca-Cola led the way.

• S&P 500: ➡️ Flat at 6,068.5 › Staples up, discretionary down.

• Nasdaq 100: ⬇️ -0.4% › 19,643.9 › Tesla dragged tech down.

• Russell 2000: ⬇️ -0.5% › 2,275.70 › Small caps struggled.

Market Movers:
➝ Inflation Watch: CPI lands Wednesday, expected to show 2.9% annual inflation—enough to keep the Fed cautious. PPI follows Thursday.

➝ Powell Part Two: He’s back at it Wednesday in front of the House. Markets will be hanging onto every word for rate-cut signals.

➝ Small Biz Blues: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dipped, while the uncertainty index jumped—another sign that businesses aren’t loving the outlook.

Macro Moves:
➝ 10-Year Yield: ⬆️ 4.2 bps › 4.54%
➝ 2-Year Yield: ⬆️ 2.2 bps › 4.29%

❗ Next on deck: CPI lands Wednesday, with markets eyeing a 0.3% monthly increase—enough to keep the Fed on alert. Thursday brings PPI data, adding another layer to the inflation picture.

#TRUTH:
❗❗❗ “I have left orders to be awakened at any time in case of national emergency—even if I’m in a Cabinet meeting.” ~ Ronald Reagan, 40th President of the United States

Soda Standoff:

Coca-Cola poured in better-than-expected earnings in Q4, with strong volume growth and higher prices driving a beat on both the top and bottom lines.

• EPS: $0.55 vs. $0.52 expected

• Revenue: $11.5B vs. estimates

Unlike PepsiCo, which posted a sales miss last week and is pivoting toward “value” packaging, Coke flexed its pricing power—raising prices 9% last quarter while still increasing global volume by 2%.

Going forward, Coca-Cola expects 2-3% EPS growth and 5-6% organic revenue growth in 2025—slightly below analysts’ forecasts of 7.1%.

Stock Performance

• Coca-Cola (KO): +8% over the past year

• PepsiCo (PEP): Down 15% in the same period

• S&P 500: Up nearly 21%

While both stocks have lagged the broader market, Coca-Cola has held up better, proving it can charge more without losing customers—something Pepsi can’t quite say.

🍏 Why Apple was Up Yesterday?

Apple (AAPL) jumped 2.8% after reports that it’s teaming up with Alibaba (BABA) to roll out AI features for iPhones in China.

❗ Investors took it as a sign that Apple finally remembers AI exists.

What’s Moving the Stock?

• AI in China – The partnership with Alibaba could help Apple stay competitive in China, where AI features are becoming a must-have.

• Market Reaction – Apple’s stock is volatile, with 21 moves greater than 2.5% in the past year. Today’s jump is not a game-changer, but meaningful enough to get Wall Street’s attention.

Context: Apple’s Rough Start to 2025

• The stock fell 3.8% last week after new Trump tariffs threatened its supply chain.

• UBS warns a 10% tariff on Chinese goods could cut Apple’s EPS by 3% per year if no workaround is found.

• Bank of America analysts think Apple might secure tariff exemptions—but nothing’s guaranteed.

Where It Stands

• AAPL is down 3.5% YTD, now trading at $235.21, 9.2% below its 52-week high of $259.02 from December.

• A $1,000 investment in Apple 5 years ago? Now worth $2,944.

Bottom Line: Today’s AI news gives Apple some positive momentum, but with trade tensions looming, investors aren’t out of the woods just yet.

Gold High, Miners Still Asking for a Map:

Gold prices are flirting with record highs, but Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Newmont (NEM) aren’t getting much love from investors. With Q4 earnings on deck, shareholders want to see better margins, lower costs, and real gains from bullion’s rally.

Earnings on Deck

Gold is hovering near $2,900 an ounce and inching toward $3,000, yet Barrick and Newmont have lagged—a sharp contrast to smaller peers like Agnico Eagle, which has consistently beaten expectations.

• Barrick reports Q4 earnings Wednesday and will outline its full-year production guidance.

• Agnico Eagle reports Feb. 13 and Newmont follows on Feb. 20.

So far, investors are betting on a turnaround—a Bloomberg index of top gold miners is up 31% this year, nearly triple the gains of spot gold.

Challenges Loom

For Barrick, geopolitical risk is weighing on shares. The company halted operations in Mali after the military government started seizing its gold. On top of that, Barrick is dealing with setbacks in Papua New Guinea, the Dominican Republic, and higher costs at its Nevada operations.

Newmont has its own cost-cutting mission. After a rough Q3, the company has been slashing expenses and selling off assets—bringing in $4.3 billion in cash.

What Investors Want to See

With both companies promising a strong Q4, analysts say they need to deliver. The market wants:
➝ Stronger production numbers
➝ Cost discipline—especially with inflation still biting
➝ Clearer operational stability

Big Picture

Gold’s rally isn’t enough—investors want results. If Barrick and Newmont can’t prove they can control costs and expand margins, even record gold prices won’t be enough to win back confidence.

9M Barrel Stockpile:

Oil prices paused their recent rally after an industry report showed a massive 9-million-barrel build in U.S. crude stockpiles—the biggest in a year if confirmed by official data.

• Brent crude hovered just under $77 per barrel after a 4% gain over three sessions.

• WTI crude steadied near $73 per barrel.

The Market’s Crossroads

The energy market is stuck between competing forces:

✔️ Bullish:

• U.S. sanctions on Russian crude are disrupting supply.

• A harsh winter has driven up heating demand.

• Tighter Iran and Russia sanctions could push prices higher.

❌ Bearish:

• Trump’s tariff threats are raising trade war fears.

• Large U.S. stockpile gains are signaling weaker demand.

• Canadian crude flows into the U.S. could increase, adding to supply.

What’s Next?

• EIA stockpile data lands Wednesday—if confirmed, it’s the biggest build in a year.

• OPEC’s monthly report arrives today, followed by the IEA’s outlook on Thursday.

• Markets are keeping an eye on China, where refiners are being offered discounted Russian crude as blacklisted tankers struggle to move supply.

For now, oil remains stuck in the $70-$80 range, waiting for a clearer catalyst.

Highlights of the Day:

① Super Micro’s Wild Ride ❌
➝ Super Micro (SMCI) -9.3% › Earnings miss, slashed guidance, and accounting controversies sent shares tumbling.
➝ After-Hours Rebound › Stock bounced back 8.4% after the company reassured investors it would meet Nasdaq’s filing deadline.

② Tesla Hits the Brakes ❌
➝ Tesla (TSLA) -6.3% › Weak January sales, negative analyst calls, and BYD’s “God’s Eye” self-driving tech put pressure on shares.
➝ Oppenheimer called Musk’s OpenAI bid a “distraction” from Tesla’s core challenges.

③ Lyft’s Booking Blunder ❌
➝ Lyft (LYFT) -4.8% › Q1 bookings forecast missed estimates, with fierce Uber competition and extreme weather disruptions weighing on demand.

④ Coca-Cola Fizzes Up ✅
➝ Coca-Cola (KO) +4.7% › Higher prices, strong Q4 demand, and an earnings beat gave the stock a boost.
➝ Pricing power > Pepsi—Coke managed to raise prices without losing customers.

⑤ AMC Joins the Frenzy ✅
➝ AMC (AMC) +4.1% › Stock ripped higher on heavy trading volume and no real news, as speculative buyers piled in.
➝ Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey called AMC “positioned for a multiyear recovery”… but that was yesterday.

⑥ Marriott Checks Out ❌
➝ Marriott (MAR) -5.4% › Despite record room growth in 2024, 2025 projections fell short, dragging the stock down.

⑦ Zillow Slumps ❌
➝ Zillow (ZG) -1.7% › Beat Q4 estimates but warned of weak home sales due to high mortgage rates.
➝ Redfin (RDFN) +4.4% › Gained on news of a rental listings partnership with Zillow.

⑧ Intel’s Options Boom ✅
➝ Intel (INTC) +6.2% › Call options demand hit its most bullish level since 2021, fueling a breakout for the chipmaker.

⑨ Chipmaker Expansion ✅
➝ Lam Research (LRCX) -0.5% › Investing $1.2B in India to boost semiconductor manufacturing and expand supply chains.

Commodities Check : ✔️

• Oil: ⬆️ +1.05% › $75.25/bbl as geopolitical tensions and new tariffs fueled volatility.

• Gold: ⬆️ +1.6% › $2,934.40/oz on safe-haven demand.

• Silver: ⬆️ +0.8% › $32.05/oz tracking gold’s strength.

Get a Serious Trading Platform and a Sweet Bonus.
» Find out more

The stinger

Disclaimer

This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills.