Monday Meltdown. Markets had zero chill to start the week. The S&P 500 tumbled 2.7%, the Nasdaq cratered 4%, and even the 10-year yield collapsed as recession fears took center stage.

Over the weekend, President Trump hinted at a possible downturn, and Wall Street panicked. Goldman Sachs promptly raised its recession odds, and investors ran for cover. The Magnificent 7 got wrecked, with Tesla (-15.4%) leading the charge lower after a brutal UBS downgrade.

Meanwhile, the bond market screamed “risk off”, with yields plunging as traders re-evaluated the Fed’s next move.

⚡ Closing Bell:

➝ Dow Jones: ⬇️ -2.1% › 41,911.7 › No safe haven here.
➝ S&P 500: ⬇️ -2.7% › 5,614.6 › Worst session in weeks.
➝ Nasdaq 100: ⬇️ -4.0% › 17,468.3 › Big Tech got torched.
➝ Russell 2000: ⬇️ -2.5% › 2,091.5 › Small caps joined the slump.

Markets catching a break from tariff drama next week? Unlikely. New steel and aluminum tariffs take effect Wednesday—right as fresh CPI data lands.

Economic Signals:
➝ Recession Noise: Goldman Sachs hikes its 12-month recession probability to 20% as trade tensions grow.
➝ Inflation Watch: Consumer inflation expectations tick higher, while Fed surveys signal weaker financial confidence.
➝ Tariff Fallout: Auto duties delayed, but steel & aluminum tariffs hit Wednesday—right as fresh CPI data lands.

Macro Moves:
➝ 10-Year Yield: ⬇️ -9.3 bps › 4.225%
➝ 2-Year Yield: ⬇️ -10.6 bps › 3.896%

❗ Looking Ahead:
Recession fears, trade chaos, and CPI data—this week is packed.
Markets are already reeling, but another inflation surprise could make or break the Fed’s next move.

Is this just another brutal Monday, or are we seeing the start of something nastier?

#TRUTH:
❗😃 “The best way to teach your kids about taxes is by eating 30% of their ice cream.” ~ Bill Murray

Gains & Pains:

➝ Tesla Tumbles: Tesla ($TSLA -15.46%) had its worst day since 2020, extending its slide as UBS slashed its price target.

➝ Momentum Meltdown: Palantir ($PLTR -10.05%), Nvidia ($NVDA -5.03%), and Broadcom ($AVGO -5.32%) all sank as the AI trade cooled off.

➝ Airline Turbulence: Delta ($DAL -5.56%), United ($UAL -6.36%), Southwest ($LUV -3.49%), and American Airlines ($AAL -3.91%) nosedived on tariff concerns and a weakening consumer outlook.

➝ Gaming Glitch: Nintendo ($NTDOY -5.93%), Sony ($SONY -5.34%), and Microsoft ($MSFT -3.32%) fell as new tariffs threaten to push console prices higher.

➝ Crypto Crash: Strategy ($MSTR -16.79%) and Robinhood ($HOOD -19.81%) plunged as Bitcoin ($BTC -3.01%) slid and sentiment soured.

➝ SoFi Slump: SoFi ($SOFI -11.28%) suffered its worst day in a year as post-election euphoria faded.

➝ Quantum Collapse: The pure-play quantum computing bubble officially burst, with Rigetti ($RGTI -15.40%), D-Wave ($QBTS -10.51%), and IonQ ($IONQ -11.14%) shedding billions in market cap.

➝ Redfin Rips, Rocket Sinks: Redfin ($RDFN +67.70%) soared after its acquisition by Rocket ($RKT -15.38%), but Rocket’s stock got hammered.

✅ Bright Spots:
➝ Defensive Plays: Northrop Grumman ($NOC +1.83%) and Conagra ($CAG +1.49%) provided some shelter from the storm.

Short Circuit:

It was a rough day for the market, but Tesla ($TSLA -15.46%) took the hardest hit, posting its worst single-day drop since 2020.

The EV giant’s brutal selloff lands it as the worst-performing stock on the S&P 500 this year—a sharp reversal from its former high-flyer status.

What’s dragging Tesla down?
➝ Falling sales and weaker demand.
➝ Lower analyst estimates cutting growth expectations.
➝ Tougher competition from legacy automakers and new EV startups.
➝ Tariff troubles, with key parts sourced from Mexico and Canada.
➝ Elon Musk drama—from company protests to investor concerns over his leadership.

Tesla’s last major wipeout was in September 2020, when it tanked 21% after failing to make the S&P 500. Now? It’s in the index—just not in the way investors had hoped.

Recession Rumors, Bank Edition:

Bank stocks took a beating Monday as recession storm clouds loomed over Wall Street. Morgan Stanley (-6.4%) led the slide, with Wells Fargo (-6.0%), Citigroup (-4.3%), JPMorgan (-4.2%), Goldman Sachs (-5.1%), and Bank of America (-3.8%) all tumbling. The financial sector has now erased all its 2025 gains, weighed down by fresh economic uncertainty.

President Trump’s latest comments about a “period of transition” stoked fears of a slowdown, adding to concerns from last week’s weaker-than-expected jobs report. Banks, which thrive on economic growth, are flashing warning signs as lending risks rise.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has long warned that rising unemployment could spark credit losses, while Goldman Sachs just slashed its 2025 growth outlook, citing tariff headwinds and a stubbornly tight labor market.

All eyes are on the market for signs of a deeper downturn.

Takeaways:

Sports betting stocks folded as recession fears rattled markets Monday. DraftKings (-5.5%) and Flutter Entertainment (-8.3%) tumbled harder than the S&P 500, despite March Madness being just around the corner.

➝ Casino stocks weren’t spared either—Caesars (-4.3%) and MGM Resorts (-0.5%) slid as investors questioned how much disposable income consumers will actually be willing to gamble if the economy slows down.

Turns out, when recession worries rise, risk-taking drops—and Wall Street isn’t betting on a hot streak for these stocks anytime soon.

₿ corner:

Crude Reality:

Oil prices struggled to find a floor after Monday’s selloff, mirroring a broader risk-off move across global markets.

➝ WTI Crude hovered around $66 per barrel after dropping 1.5% Monday.
➝ Brent Crude stayed near $69, weighed down by economic fears.

Investors are fleeing risk assets as President Trump’s tariff measures and spending cuts fuel economic uncertainty in the world’s largest oil consumer. The chaos has wiped out nearly 20% of oil’s value since its mid-January highs.

📉 Bearish Pressures Mount:
➝ OPEC+ Supply Expansion: The cartel plans to boost output, adding more pressure to prices.
➝ China Demand Slump: Beijing is urging refiners to shift away from traditional fuels like diesel and gasoline.

💡 A Glimmer of Support:
➝ Iran Sanctions: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Trump administration is ready to enforce sanctions on Iranian oil, which could provide a price floor.
➝ Industry Backing: Executives from Chevron, Shell, and Saudi Aramco voiced strong support for Trump’s energy-dominance agenda at the CERAWeek conference.

Still, with uncertainty gripping markets, oil remains stuck in limbo—bouncing between $60 and $80, as Vitol Group’s CEO sees as the likely trading range for the foreseeable future.

Escapes:

Dugi Otok Island, Croatia

Commodities Check : ✔️

• Gold: ⬇️ -0.8% › $2,891.5 per ounce
• Silver: ⬇️ -1.1% › $32.44 per ounce
• WTI Crude Oil: ⬇️ -1.6% › $65.96 per barrel

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The stinger:

Disclaimer

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