Some Thrills & Spills

In this buzz: Today: U.S. retail sales and housing data; Corporate earnings season is back too; Drama in China; Some Good vibes from U.S. economic sentiment; Gold rising high on a weaker $ and a bit more…

Today’s got some exciting action in the market.
→ We’re zooming in on the U.S. retail sales and housing data,
→ putting July’s laid-back investment vibe to the test.
Plus,
→ corporate earnings season is back in full swing, and we’ve got a bunch of bank reports rolling in.

Yesterday on Wall Street,
… things ended on a high note. But all eyes were on China’s economic recovery – it stumbled a bit in Q2, and banks rushed to chop down their 2023 estimates.

Hong Kong stocks joined the drama with a 2% dip, thanks to the real estate sector causing some major worries. Evergrande, the big property firm, revealed some hefty losses and liabilities in overdue results. Not the news they wanted to share!

But hey, it’s not all doom and gloom.
U.S. economic sentiment brought a dose of positivity. The New York Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index crushed July’s estimates, reporting falling prices and rising new orders. Nice!

❗Goldman Sachs is catching the good vibes too, talking about a ‘soft landing’ economic theory. They’ve dialed down the chances of a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from the previous 25%. Sounds like they’re seeing sunny skies ahead!

Back to today’s hot stuff:
① June retail sales data and a ② July homebuilder sentiment survey are on deck. And ③ corporate earnings reports from big players like Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of New York Mellon are ready to rock.

Fingers crossed for some stellar numbers! Consensus forecasts are feeling optimistic, predicting a modest rise in retail sales and industrial output last month. Plus, the NAHB homebuilder index might show off some serious recovery power in July.

But, let’s not get our guard down just yet.
→ U.S. stock futures are playing it cool, and
→ 10-year Treasury yields are taking a leisurely stroll.
→ Crude oil prices are trying to steady themselves after Monday’s wild ride.
They’re still down more than 25% compared to last year – yikes!

The dollar?
Just taking a chill pill, nothing too crazy.

And the energy:
Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude had a bit of a rough Monday, but they’re up a smidge today. Some folks are feeling hopeful about tighter U.S. crude supplies, while others are keeping an eye on China’s not-so-great economic growth.

The precious metals are partying too!
Gold hit a four-week high, and silver’s tagging along for the fun. A weaker U.S. dollar, firmer crude oil prices, and lower U.S. Treasury yields are the life of their party. The charts are winking at them – go, gold and silver!

So, there you have it – the market’s in a bit of a dance, juggling mixed data and uncertainties. We’ll keep our eyes peeled for those U.S. retail sales, housing data, and corporate earnings – they’re the stars of the show today!

Events to Keep on Your Radar:

• U.S. Corporate Earnings: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon, Lockheed Martin, Charles Schwab, PNC Financial, Omnicom, Prologis, Synchrony Financial, JB Hunt Transport
• U.S. Economic Data: June retail sales, industrial production, July NAHB housing market index, May business/retail inventories, May TIC data on overseas holdings of Treasuries, Canada June CPI inflation
• Don’t miss Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaking – stay tuned!