Tick-Tock… ⏰

Mood swings… markets couldn’t decide which direction to take today. Traders held their breath ahead of Nvidia’s much-anticipated earnings report, with mixed performances across major indexes. Tech led the day’s winners, while energy and financials lagged behind. Reports of Ukraine using US-made missiles against Russian targets added complexity to an already cautious trading day.

⚡ Closing Bell:

• Dow Jones: ⬇️ -0.3% to $43,268.94 – blue chips bucked the tech rally trend, as industrial stocks struggled to find footing amid geopolitical concerns.

• S&P 500: ⬆️ +0.4% to $5,916.98 – the broader market followed tech’s lead, shaking off morning jitters to post modest gains ahead of tomorrow’s big AI earnings event.

• Nasdaq: ⬆️ +1.0% to $18,987.47 – Tech stocks led the charge today, with Nvidia’s pre-earnings rally pushing the index higher despite early Russia-Ukraine tensions.

• Russell 2000: ⬆️ +0.8% → $2,324.83 – the rise seemed to mirror a broader market recovery, driven by technology sector strength as investors positioned ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report today.

Treasury yields eased slightly:

• 2-Year Yield: Flat at 4.28%

• 10-Year Yield: ⬇️ -2.2 bps to 4.39%

#TRUTH:
❗“Don’t wait. The time will never be just right.” ~ Napoleon Hill

Three-month low:

U.S. Housing Starts: ⬇️ -3.1% → 1.3M units – October’s construction activity hit by double trouble in the South, marking the slowest pace in three months

Regional Breakdown:
→ South: ⬇️ -10.2% – Hurricanes Helene and Milton disrupted construction plans
→ Northeast: ⬇️ -28.7% – Steepest regional decline
→ Midwest & West: ⬆️ +4.6% – Bucked the national trend

Building Permits: ⬇️ -0.6% → 1.42M units – Future construction plans staying cautious, though single-family permits managed a modest victory lap (+0.5%).

Housing supply continues to run well below the sustainable level of 1.7M units – marking the 30th straight month of shortfall. Analysts expect a near-term rebound as Southern rebuilding efforts kick in, though higher mortgage rates may keep the champagne on ice.

DIY 🪜:

Lowe’s (LOW): ⬇️ -4.60% → $259.26 – Mixed signals in home improvement land. Here’s the story:

The Good:

• EPS: $2.89 vs $2.82 expected

• Revenue: $20.17B vs $19.95B expected

• Pro business: ⬆️ High single-digit growth

• Online sales: Strong performance

• Guidance: Raised full-year outlook

The Not-So-Good:

• Comparable sales: ⬇️ -1.1%

• Full-year sales: Still expects decline

• Big-ticket projects: Customers hitting pause

• Stock performance: +17% YTD (vs S&P 500’s +24%)

CEO’s Take:
“Projects aren’t canceled, just postponed” – Marvin Ellison suggests patience as market waits for mortgage rates to find “new normal”.

Market Context:
Home improvement sector showing similar patterns:

• Home Depot (HD): ⬇️ 8 straight quarters of declining comps

• Both retailers seeing hurricane-related demand boost

• Pro business outperforming DIY segment

Higher Spenders = Growth:

Retail giant Walmart demonstrated its market resilience with impressive Q3 performance, posting $168 billion in revenue – a robust ⬆️ 5.4% year-over-year increase. While foot traffic showed signs of cooling, the average basket size continued to expand, driven by an unexpected demographic shift.

Key Performance Highlights

① Shifting Consumer Base
Upper-income households are increasingly choosing Walmart for their shopping needs, marking a significant evolution in the retailer’s traditional customer profile.

② Digital and Advertising Success

• E-commerce revenue surged 27% ⬆️

• Advertising business jumped 28% ⬆️

Market Response

The earnings beat triggered a 2.7% ⬆️ stock rally, setting a positive tone for the retail sector. This performance comes at a crucial time, with major competitors preparing to release their results:

RetailerEarnings Date

Google’s Dilemma:

DOJ wants Google to potentially sell Chrome browser – a move that could reshape the internet as we know it. Here’s why:

① Chrome’s Dominance:
→ Browser Share: ⬆️ 67% – Leading the global browser market
→ Search Control: ⬆️ 93% – Google.com’s share of US web searches
→ Revenue Impact: $49B (Last quarter’s search earnings)

② Apple Deal: $20B (2022) is what Google pays to be Safari’s default search engine. Why: While the browser doesn’t charge users a dime, it delivers three priceless assets:

→ Guaranteed search traffic (default to Google.com)
→ Rich user behavior data
→ Premium advertising targeting

It’s Google’s VIP pass to user behavior – it’s not about browser revenue, it’s about controlling the gateway to the internet.

③ The Real Story: Experts see this as a negotiation tactic rather than an endgame. The DOJ’s likely aiming for:
→ Ending default search deals with Apple/Samsung
→ Weakening Google’s data collection grip
→ Opening up competition in search

④ The Price Tag Problem:
The real challenge is finding a buyer who can:

→ Afford the purchase price
→ Support ongoing development costs
→ Maintain service for billions of users

The Short List of Potential Buyers:

• Microsoft: Has the cash, but already owns Edge

• Amazon: Could afford it, but faces its own antitrust scrutiny

• Apple: Has Safari and likely uninterested

• Meta: Could use it, but faces regulatory headwinds

⑤ The Hidden Costs: Chrome isn’t just expensive to buy – it’s expensive to run:

• Mozilla spends $425M yearly on Firefox (with just 3% market share)

• Chrome’s 67% market share would mean billions in annual costs

• Current revenue model relies on Google’s search payments

The Monopoly Paradox:
Here’s the twist – any tech giant rich enough to buy Chrome would likely face the same monopoly concerns that Google faces now. It’s like solving one monopoly problem by creating another.

Options on ₿ ETFs:

Wall Street’s getting creative with crypto as traditional finance keeps adding new ways to play Bitcoin’s wild ride. Yesterday’s options launch marked another step in Bitcoin’s journey to mainstream asset.

In numbers:

• First day trading volume → $445M

• Most contracts: Bullish calls

• Popular bet: Bitcoin at $114K by December 20

• Market sentiment: Overwhelmingly optimistic

Meanwhile:

Bitcoin: ⬆️ $94,078 → New ATH – Digital gold smashes records as Trump-Bakkt acquisition rumors fuel the fire.

Other Factors:

• BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options debut on Nasdaq

• Post-election optimism around crypto-friendly policies

Market Impact on Crypto-Related Stocks:

• Coinbase: ⬆️ +65% (10-day gain)

• MicroStrategy: ⬆️ ATH (Added 52,000 BTC)

The Trump effect continues to energize crypto markets. Traders are betting big on the promised “strategic Bitcoin reserve” becoming more than just campaign talk.

2025 Outlook:

Goldman’s Forecasts: The market can thrive without relying solely on tech giants. While the Magnificent Seven will still lead, their edge is narrowing – from dominating the race to just staying ahead of the pack.

2023: ⬆️ +63 points vs market
2024: ⬆️ +22 points vs market
2025 Forecast: ⬆️ +7 points vs market

🧩 Movers:

• Super Micro (SMCI): ⬆️ +31.24% ✅ – New auditor appointment and Nasdaq compliance plan filing sparks massive rally.

• Vistra Corp (VST): ⬆️ +4.67% ✅ – Leading utility gainer amid market volatility.

• NVIDIA (NVDA): ⬆️ +4.63% ✅ – Surges ahead of tomorrow’s crucial earnings, reclaims most valuable company spot from Apple.

• United Airlines (UAL): ⬆️ +4.29% ✅ – Airlines sector outperforms broader market.

• Walmart (WMT): ⬆️ +3.00% ✅ – Hits ATH after beating earnings and raising guidance.

• Lowe’s (LOW): ⬇️ -4.60% – Despite earnings beat, warns of weak big-ticket spending.

• Incyte Corp (INCY): ⬇️ -8.33% – S&P 500’s biggest decliner.

• Moderna (MRNA): ⬇️ -5.62% – Biotech sector weakness continues.

• Intuit (INTU): ⬇️ -5.10% – Tech selloff hits software names.

Commodities Check: ✔️

• Crude Oil: ⬆️ +0.7% to $69.66/barrel – Steady gains despite geopolitical uncertainty.

• Gold: ⬆️ +0.8% to $2,635.50/oz – Investors flock to safe-haven assets.

• Silver: ⬆️ +0.3% to $31.32/oz.

The Dollar:

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