Yesterday market had no clear direction as traders brace for a jobs report that will somehow surprise no one and everyone at the same time. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 edged higher, while the Dow took a step back as traders tried to gauge where the economy—and the Fed—are headed next.

⚡ Closing Bell:

• S&P 500: ⬆️ +0.4% › Closed at session highs.

• Nasdaq 100: ⬆️ +0.5% › Nvidia & Meta led the charge.

• Dow Jones: ⬆️ +0.2% › Ralph Lauren & Amex kept it afloat.

• Russell 2000: ⬇️ -0.7% › Small caps took a hit.

Sector Moves:
✅ Tech: Nvidia (+3.09%) & Palantir (+9.82%) flexed.
✅ Luxury Goods: Ralph Lauren (+9.73%) & Tapestry (+12.01%) soared.
❌ Energy: The worst-performing sector of the day.
❌ Consumer Discretionary: Ford (-7.44%) & Roblox (-11.08%) got slammed.

The labor market remains in focus—weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, and January layoffs increased 28% from December but remained 40% lower than last year. Meanwhile, the Fed remains cautious, keeping rates steady while inflation hovers above target.

Macro Moves:
➝ 10-Year Yield: ⬆️ 1.6 bps › 4.44%
➝ 2-Year Yield: ⬆️ 2.9 bps › 4.21%

❗ What’s Next?
With the Fed on pause, all eyes are on tomorrow’s payroll report. Will the labor market show enough weakness to revive rate-cut bets, or is higher-for-longer the new reality?

#TRUTH:
❗❗❗ “A leader leads by example, not by force.” ~ The Art of War

More of the Same:

Amazon’s Q4 beat expectations, but its Q1 outlook had Wall Street feeling lukewarm at best, bewildered at worst. The stock slid 3% after hours. Strong cloud revenue and AI investments weren’t enough to offset a weaker-than-expected outlook.

What Spooked Investors?

➝ Q1 Revenue Guidance › Amazon expects $151B-$155B, falling short of Wall Street’s $158B estimate.
➝ Currency Drag › A $2.1B foreign exchange hit is weighing on projections.
➝ AWS Slight Miss › Cloud revenue landed at $28.7B, just shy of the $28.8B estimate.

AI Spending Goes Into Overdrive

Amazon is pushing all-in on AI, announcing a $105 billion capital expenditure plan for 2025—up from $75B last year. Data centers and AI infrastructure are the focus, as the company races to keep up with Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL).

DeepSeek Disrupts the Game

China’s DeepSeek is shaking up AI, proving that massive budgets don’t guarantee dominance. Amazon, like Microsoft, has onboarded DeepSeek’s model to AWS, but investors are questioning how this shifts the AI landscape.

Big Picture?

Amazon’s Q4 was strong, but Q1 concerns are keeping investors on edge. The cloud battle is heating up, AI competition is intensifying, and Wall Street isn’t in the mood for uncertainty.

Isn’t as easy as it used to be:

The once-red-hot job market isn’t what it used to be. Finding work in America is taking longer, with continuing unemployment claims climbing to 1.89 million last week—the highest in nearly three years. While layoffs remain low, the real struggle is landing a new gig, and it’s showing.

Even college grads—once the golden ticket holders of the labor market—are feeling the slowdown.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell isn’t sugarcoating it either. In his last press conference, he called it a “low hiring environment.” Translation? Fewer job openings, slower hiring, and a labor market that’s losing its edge.

JOLTS Data Tells the Same Story:
➝ Hiring rate? Stuck at 3.4%—one of the weakest in a decade.
➝ Job openings? Down to 4.5%, scraping post-pandemic lows.

So, where does this leave us? The big test comes today with the January jobs report. Analysts expect 170,000 new jobs—a steep decline from December’s 256,000.

The real question: Is this just a cooling-off period, or is the job market officially hitting a wall?

Gold’s on Fire—But Don’t Sleep on Silver:

Gold has been making headlines, smashing records near $2,900 an ounce.
➝ Central banks keep stacking it,
➝ trade tensions are fueling demand, and
➝ the market’s appetite isn’t fading anytime soon.
But while gold takes center stage, silver has been lagging behind—until now.

Despite averaging a 12% annual return over the last three years, silver is still trailing gold’s 16% gain. Hovering around $32.65 an ounce, about 7% below its 12-month peak, the metal hasn’t quite caught the same momentum.
❗ But history suggests that when gold rallies, silver usually follows.

Beyond its reputation as gold’s shadow, silver has something gold doesn’t—massive industrial demand.
➝ The green energy boom is ramping up silver consumption, especially in solar panel production, where China is leading the charge.
➝ Supply is another key factor. Unlike gold, 75% of silver is mined as a byproduct of other metals, meaning production doesn’t ramp up just because prices do.
With supply constrained and demand climbing, the setup for silver is looking stronger by the day.

If gold’s relentless rise is any indicator, silver’s moment might not be far behind. The metal has been stuck in the background, but its time in the spotlight could be coming soon.

Highlights of the Day:

① Luxury & Lifestyle Boom ✅

➝ Tapestry (TPR) +12.02% › Holiday shoppers delivered, pushing sales and guidance higher.
➝ Philip Morris (PM) +10.95% › ZYN pouches aren’t just a trend—they’re driving serious revenue growth.
➝ Ralph Lauren (RL) +9.73% › High-end fashion demand showed no signs of slowing.

② AI & Software Strength ✅

➝ Palantir (PLTR) +9.82% › Market cap now bigger than McDonald’s and American Express.
➝ Peloton (PTON) +12.01% › A surprise earnings beat has investors hopeful for a comeback.
➝ Trump Media (DJT) +6.69% › Bitcoin ETF trademark filings sparked investor excitement.

③ Market Laggards ❌

➝ Ford (F) -7.49% › Warned 2025 profitability will be even worse than 2024.
➝ Roblox (RBLX) -11.08% › Daily active user growth? Not looking great.
➝ Honeywell (HON) -5.64% › Announced a three-way split but left investors skeptical.

④ Supply Chain Shakeup ❌

➝ Skyworks (SWKS) -24.67% › Lost a big slice of iPhone business—Wall Street reacted accordingly.
➝ Qualcomm (QCOM) -3.72% › Strong earnings, but weak smartphone demand weighed on sentiment.

Commodities Check : ✔️

• WTI Crude: ⬇️ -0.8% › $70.50/bbl › Energy stocks followed oil lower.

• Gold: ⬇️ -0.5% › $2,880.10/oz › Treasury sanctions on Iranian oil added some volatility.

• Silver: ⬇️ -1% › $32.66/oz

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Disclaimer

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